Tel Aviv: Israeli defence experts have warned on September 29 that the Middle East is on the threshold of a nuclear race. “The first that may join is Saudi Arabia but other countries like Egypt may follow,” Maj. General (Ret) Amos Gilad said.
The Israeli senior defence expert added that Mohammed Bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince declared that if Iran achieves military nuclear capability his country will follow.
“There is a very long cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan about nuclear capability. The Pakistanis have nuclear warheads and the Saudis have long range ballistic missiles. If the US and Israel fail in stopping the Iranian race to the bomb, it will be no less than a disaster. That should be taken very seriously” Gilad said.
Gilad, former head of the IDF’s intelligence research division is considered one of the top Israeli experts on Middle Eastern defence issues.
Israeli sources said that there are signs that Saudi Arabia is very serious in its nuclear intentions. “It sees that Iran in spite of the sanctions is galloping to the bomb when the west just mutters words with no substance against the program and think – why not us,” one of the sources said.
Both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have denied the existence of an agreement about supplying a nuclear device to Saudi Arabia in return for the Saudi financial help of the Pakistani nuclear program. Western intelligence sources have told the Guardian that the Saudi monarchy has paid for up to 60% of the Pakistan’s atomic bomb projects and in return has the option to buy five to six nuclear warheads off the shelf.
Israeli defence sources say that there are signs that Saudi Arabia understanding that the US has withdrawn from the Gulf region, is seriously considering acquiring military nuclear capability to deter Iran from any aggression.
This assessment is shared by many Israeli observers that are following the development of the developments in the Gulf region.
Saudi Arabia has military capability aspirations in recent years and now the developments in the Gulf region have turned them into an action plan.
A report prepared by the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), the two researchers Yoel Guzansky and Tomer Barak say that the Saudi understanding of the substantial military gaps and the depth of the threats that it must cope with, along with the weakened American support and the shortened time to an Iranian military nuclear breakout, could accelerate the Saudi leadership’s thinking about advancing independent military nuclear capabilities as a new means of deterrence in the arsenal against Iranian activity.
“Saudi Arabia’s interest in the nuclear realm is not new, nor is the concern that under certain circumstances and conditions, Riyadh could pursue a military nuclear course. Senior leaders in the kingdom have referred to the issue on more than one occasion and have stated that the kingdom will acquire nuclear capability if Iran does so and that the kingdom seeks control over all of the components of the nuclear fuel cycle,” the researchers opined.
The Saudi grave concerns according to Israeli sources are fuelled by what they call “Iran leading the US by the nose” in the so called nuclear talks about a new nuclear deal. If the Saudis needed another proof that the Iranians are doing whatever they want and are very close to a nuclear capability, the statement of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken supplied it.
Blinken said that time was running out for Iran to return to a nuclear deal after a scathing report by the UN atomic watchdog. “I’m not going to put a date on it but we are getting closer to the point at which a strict return to compliance with the JCPOA does not reproduce the benefits that that agreement achieved,” Blinken told reporters in Germany.
The IAEA released a strongly-worded report Tuesday saying monitoring tasks in Iran have been “seriously undermined” after Tehran suspended some of the UN agency’s inspections of its nuclear activities. The watchdog said Iran has also dramatically increased its production of highly enriched uranium in recent months.
Dr Mordechai Kedar, a senior expert on Middle East issues said that people should remember that Saudi Arabia financed the Pakistani nuclear program and in return was promised to supply a nuclear bomb to the Saudis on their request. “The Saudi army is a puppet army that is defeated again and again by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Bare foot warriors defeat an army equipped with advanced systems” Kedar said.
He mentioned the 2019 Houthi attack on the Saudi oil installations “and since then a long list of attacks that were not stopped by the Saudis. When they understand that Iran will soon have a nuclear bomb they know that the only way to protects themselves is to have one too”.
According to watch dog organization NTI, Saudi Arabia has a limited ballistic missile arsenal consisting of the Chinese Dongfeng-3 (DF-3; NATO: CSS-2), and reportedly the Dongfeng-21 (DF-21; NATO: CSS-5). Riyadh has not demonstrated an interest in developing an indigenous missile program. The NTI report says that although China originally designed both the DF-3 and DF-21 to carry nuclear payloads, the DF-3s were modified to deliver conventional warheads before being transferred to Saudi Arabia. Similarly, Saudi Arabia’s DF-21s have reportedly been modified to carry only conventional warheads.
Israeli defence sources said that the Americans finally understand that Iran has “killed time” in the so called negotiations about a new nuclear agreement, ignoring the Israeli very precise intel that proved they are weeks from the capability to build a nuclear bomb.
