Present India has toughened itself against China after latter’s recent escalation against the former at Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh. Meanwhile, India has bought 36 Rafale aircraft from France out of which five aircraft have already reached India. This is certainly India’s preparedness to deal with any possible military attack against China or any other nations particularly Pakistan in the given time. Indian military force has responded China in most likely manner during the recent military conflict. Indian Army, Air Force and Navy are kept positioning and triggering against China as New Delhi wants to reply Beijing in the language it understands.
India’s tough stand against China found utterance during the 74th Independence Day speech of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. PM Modi virtually made open challenge to China and Pakistan and clarified stands both against terrorism sponsored by Pakistan and expansionist approach of China. In his Independence Day speech he rightly said that this is not the era of imperial rule and it is better for South East Asia, the region and the globe to stay away from imperial approach. He was indicating at Chinese imperial approach. But in today’s perspective military conflict and related affairs depend largely on strategic strength.
From the rampart of the Red Fort, the Prime Minister unveiled India’s new foreign policy goal, which he termed “Extended Neighbourhood” where countries of West Asia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will be important parleys. However, in case of formulating strategic cluster, the area that bears special significance is the immediate neighbourhood. So also, India’s enemy in the present context belongs to this region. This makes strategic partnership in the neighbourhood more important. Therefore, it is important to see what is the shape and form of India’s strength in case of strategic partnership with the neighbouring nations.
After becoming Prime Minister of India in 2014, Narendra Modi and his team have kept no stone unturned to make the impression that in the form of Modi as Premier of India, the country has got a great diplomat and statesman. PM Modi is certainly the most widely travelled leader compared to his predecessors. During his tenure, he made clear indication that foreign policy is his priority area. In the strategic affairs Prime Minister Modi initiated “Neighbour First” policy. The term that got formulated and familiarised among the Indian rank and file through the media is symbolism in foreign policy affairs. This time, when China is tactically playing its stronger pressure game against India in both the conflicting war zones and strategic bases and seducing India’s entire neighbourhood sabotaging India’s security and stability, the form of diplomacy practiced so far by Prime Minister Modi becomes significant to assess things from India’s point of view.
This demands PM Modi’s diplomatic drives to be put into the scanner. Similarly, the foreign policy doctrine like “Neighbours first”, “Act East Policy”, “Indian Ocean diplomacy” “Indian Diaspora” and the larger initiatives like making South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC) a strategic axis, policy towards ASEAN needs to be perceived in terms of deliberations considering India’s larger interests. How many times PM Modi hugged Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump and all the leaders of neighbouring nations and overseas do not prove anything. Rather it proves diplomatic symbolism of an utter miscalculation. PM Modi calls both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump his good friends. Has this friendship materialised for India’s interests? Only, this bears significance as it is related to India’s national interests. After all, the new age vista of adoring and crediting one individual that has been tactically injected in the perception of common Indians deserves realistic assessment.
Today, India is facing escalation from not only China but all the neighbouring nations that dance on Chinese string. What is the real state of bilateral relations of India with Myanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and even Maldives? Chinese presence is all-pervasive in all these nations and China is making successful efforts to target India through these nations. As Chinese policy always prioritises making strategic and logistic bases, the entire South East Asia seems providing Beijing that accessibility. Now, India is literally amid an utter hostile neighbourhood. This is mainly because none of these countries are interested to make relations with India at the expense of China. One reason is huge Chinese investments in all these nations and even in India too. China is fulfilling economic needs of these nations and in return getting larger strategic accessibility. Another reason is: China is trying to make ideological bond with these nations. All these have compelled India to live under constant threat and in a suffocated atmosphere. After all, India cannot fulfill the economic needs of these nations to compete China.
In fact, real state of Modi diplomacy and the policy like neighbour first can be evaluated from the approach and trajectory of India’s neighbouring nations. Fact is: apart from Myanmar and Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Maldives have already given China airbases and ports to build strategic bases. Bhutan has violated agreements with India related to river water sharing. Sudden release of water from Bhutan’s hydropower plants creates flash flood in large part of lower Assam and North Bengal. Pending issue like Teesta water share agreement with Bangladesh has not been materialised. Despite tall claims of India regarding vibrant India-Bangladesh relations in the Modi era, Bangladesh has given Chittagong port to China for maritime accessibility in the Bay of Bengal.
Illegal trafficking, smuggling, cattle smuggling through Brahmaputra and others to Bangladesh are rampant. River patrolling in Brahmaputra is still far cry. So also, radical elements and organisations of Bangladesh having Pakistani connection try to sneak into India with the help of their ideological mates living on India-Bangladesh border in Assam, Tripura and West Bengal. Recent developments in Nepal have serious implications for India. Things need to be seen beyond India-Nepal Map rows and Nepalese Premier claiming Ayodhya exists within Nepalese territory. Present communist regime in Nepal working under direct instruction of Chinese ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqi. Her influence is all pervasive both in executive and legislative affairs in Nepal. Nepal recently banned all Indian media channels except Doordarshan as per instruction of China. Virtually, today’s Nepal speaks and acts what suits China. Through Sri Lanka, China has been trying to expand dominance in the vast area of the Indian Ocean adjacent to India’s maritime boundary. There is also report that Sri Lanka may end port-deal with India for China.
Real state of PM Modi’s hugging diplomacy and its outcome can be seen from the approach of President Trump to get Hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malaria drug. India had to approve exports of this after apparent pressure from President Donald Trump. Moreover, those who are so-called friends of Prime Minister Modi; be President Trump, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, France President Emmanuel Macron , Russian President Vladimir Putin, leaders of EU, ASEAN, Arab Union and others, nobody seemed taking any stand for India regarding the issues like Pakistan sponsored terrorism and China’s aggressiveness.
India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) claims that PM Modi has evolved with an exalted status of a global leader. But irony is: India is insecure because of the hostile approach of the neighbouring nations. China is steadily approaching to decline India’s influence in the region and Prime Minister Modi does not seem having idea, policy and strategy to counter this. This demands to assess Modi’s diplomacy and strategic game plan a fresh looking beyond diplomatic symbolism. But one thing that is undeniable that India’s strategic partnership with neighbouring nations has not materialised so far despite Prime Minister Modi’s “Neighbour First” policy. Therefore, present policy of India regarding her immediate neighbours needs a lot of course corrections for the larger interests of the nation.
-The writer is a Guwahati-based strategic affairs analyst. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
