Downplaying the External Threat

The nation is in for dangerous times. The repetitive denial of China’s aggressive hard stance on the border, downplaying the external threat and the failure to define a national security strategy clearly points out that driven by political ideology and political ambitions, national interest is being overlooked..

By Lt Gen Prakash Katoch

Editor Opinion

Pentagon’s report to the US Congress titled ‘Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China’ 2020 mentions the Galwan clash, standoff in Eastern Ladakh for which Beijing blames India and China’s refusal to withdraw until India does so and stops developing infrastructure in these areas. It also mentions China establishing ‘dual use’ villages at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) – extended cantonments for military use, which are a major concern for India.

The report specifically mentions the 100-house village built by China in Arunachal Pradesh during 2020. India’s foreign ministry has responded by saying “India has neither accepted China’s illegal occupation of its territory nor any unjustified Chinese claims.” However, CDS General Bipin Rawat denies the village is in India and that China has violated the LAC in Ladakh, which is being attributed to his political ambitions and placing political ideology above the Constitution.

 
The US report mentions “high” China-India border tensions despite some pullback of forces, which actually is downplaying the China threat. In comparison, the threat to Taiwan figures prominently in the report describing PLA’s force structure for Taiwan and contingencies under which China will use force against Taiwan

The US report mentions “high” China-India border tensions despite some pullback of forces, which actually is downplaying the China threat. In comparison, the threat to Taiwan figures prominently in the report describing PLA’s force structure for Taiwan and contingencies under which China will use force against Taiwan. This is natural but reports by US intelligence need to be taken with a pinch of salt – did they not downplay Taliban’s nexus with the Haqqani Network and Al Qaeda all these years while the CIA pumped ISIS into Afghanistan in conjunction Pakistan?

But if the National Security Advisor (NSA) starts downplaying the external threat, the nation is in for dangerous times. When Ajit Doval addressed the police academy as NSA in 2014, he said there will be no war and police has to do everything. But this time he surpassed even that in addressing the passing out parade of the 73rd batch of IPS probationers at the National Police Academy on November 12, gist of which included:

 
  • Wars have ceased to become an effective instrument for achieving political or military objectives. They are too expensive or unaffordable and there is uncertainty about their outcome.
  • The new frontiers of war is the civil society which can be subverted, suborned, divided, manipulated to hurt the interests of a nation, and which the police must protect.
  • Police responsibility includes training and preparation for border management and specialized investigations in the National Investigation Agency or Central Bureau of Investigation.

In the above context we need to examine the following:

  • Can external and internal threats be separated when physical borders are blurred in today’s warfare?
  • Should the external threats be priority for NSA with a Home Minister responsible for internal security?
  • PLA commenced exercising operations on a life-sized land model of Ladakh immediately after Xi Jinping became China’s president.
  • PLA is training to fight and win through increasingly realistic combat training using dedicated blue force opponents.
  • China says its territory and sovereignty are inviolable – territory includes all illegal territorial claims of China.
  • China continues to hold large territory of ours in Depsang and Demchok, has forced large patrol zones (which our patrols used to patrol prior to the 2020 Chinese aggression) and refuses to disengage from Hot Springs.
  • Under China’s new border law, PLA is to conduct drills and prevent invasion, encroachment, provocation and other activities which will keep the border alive.
  • China has established dual use villages in Bhutan and India and PLA personnel along with Pakistani army and ISI officers recently visited Kel, Jura and Lipa Sectors of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.
  • Is war only conventional war or does it ‘at least’ include the sub-conventional? What about the radical Islamist threat from Pakistan and upping the proxy war in J&K with China’s backing? Is the killing of CO of 46 Assam Rifles, his wife, eight-year old son and four soldiers on November 13 by terrorists in Manipur not backed by China-Pakistan?
  • China is continuing to harden its defence along the LAC including bringing an electric bullet train to Nyingchi -16 km from Tibet’s border with Arunachal Pradesh and plans to extend the Aksai Chin road to the north of Arunachal Pradesh linking the Ladakh with the Sikkim-Bhutan-Arunachal front.
  • China has taken specific measures at the operational and tactical levels to improve its defence posture against India – all of which indicate Xi is readying for limited war under the nuclear backdrop to realize China’s illegal territorial claims, as possible through a short, swift war.
  • Before a clash with the US over Taiwan, Xi would like to demonstrate capabilities through conflict with India which it considers American ally.
It is about time we come down to mother earth and seriously analyze the threats. Office bearers like the NSA and the CDS may deflect the debacle in Eastern Ladakh through the slogan of ‘not even one inch of territory lost’ but merely clinging to a political ideology without showing any spine and overlooking national interests will cost us dearly

Is all the above because of the civil society having become the frontier of war and can the IPS deal with these all this? Little wonder Doval has not been able to define a national security strategy despite tasked in 2019 to head a committee to do so.

 

The muddled thinking over war, fear of China and the pseudo belief that China cannot afford to wage war on us has led the following:

  • Inability to name China the aggressor in Ladakh.
  • Strategic blunder of vacating Kailash Range in own territory and giving up any leverage on the bargaining table in the bargain. Was this advised by the NSA? Will the NSA and CDS explain to the nation what forced us for doing so?
  • ITBP even in critical areas of Eastern Ladakh has still not been placed under the Army command – is this courtesy police allegiance of the NSA?
  • Quid-pro-quo to the proxy war waged by China and Pakistan should be the ‘bread and butter’ of the NSA. But we have little to show, especially zero against China.
  • Elections shaving become the main job of the Home Minister instead of internal security and NSA camping in West Bengal during state elections.

It is about time we come down to mother earth and seriously analyze the threats. Office bearers like the NSA and the CDS may deflect the debacle in Eastern Ladakh through the slogan of ‘not even one inch of territory lost’ but merely clinging to a political ideology without showing any spine and overlooking national interests will cost us dearly. We can surely muddle along like this in absence of any viable opposition but is this what we want?

The author is a veteran of Indian Army. Views expressed are personal.