The killing of non-Kashmiri labourers in Kashmir has brought the count of civilians killed by terrorists to at least 11 in a fortnight. The IG Police, Kashmir Range, flashed a message to the ten district police headquarters saying: “All non-local labourers in your respective jurisdiction should be brought to the nearest police or central paramilitary force or army establishment just now. The matter is most urgent.”

How many non-Kashmiri labourers have been moved on the above instructions is not known but the question is how long are they supposed to stay at these locations and how do they earn money (for which they have migrated to support the families back home) notwithstanding the fact that they will not be short of food in these locations?

In context of the above, recall the political plans of moving the Kashmiri Pandits back to the Valley into gated colonies, without a thought as to how will they earn their daily bread (online on Google?) and visit markets (online orders?). But the hype will continue, perhaps closer to elections, ignoring the fact that the environment cannot be normalized without requisite deterrence against Pakistan’s proxy war.

The media is full of denouncing minority community members who moved to safer locations for fear of getting targeted—labeling those as ‘cowards’. The UT government has reportedly asked them to report back on duty or face consequences. But for those who did move out, it is obviously a case of individual perception linked to the surroundings where they stayed and their place of work. After all, they are not politicians surrounded by layers of protection and security.

It is ironical to witness news broadcast of some TV channels that a blueprint to finish terrorism is ready (sic)—since the past 30 years? Then there are others who opine that these are circles of violence and peace. Another says this is reaction to abrogation of Article 370. But that was repealed more than two years back on August 6, 2019.

The continuing encounters with security forces in J&K indicate Pakistan’s border action teams (BAT), a mix of regulars and terrorists, are involved or perhaps only regulars in some cases. Aren’t current developments something different? This is a well thought out China-Pakistan plan linking the following dots:

• India-China standoff along India’s entire border with Tibet.
• The “uncalled for” fresh India-Pakistan ceasefire agreement preceding the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. We should have just reminded Pakistan to adhere to the ceasefire agreement of 2003.
• PLA activities in Eastern Ladakh, Barahoti and Arunachal Pradesh.
• Attacks on Hindus and desecration of temples in Bangladesh.
• China’s message it is firm in resolve to safeguard national sovereignty – all illegal territorial claims included?
• Recent Bhutan-China memorandum of understanding to expedite boundary negotiations signals China’s resolve to take the Doklam Plateau and lean on to the Siliguri Corridor.

We must acknowledge that the Taliban, ISIS-ISKP, Al Qaeda and host of other terrorist organizations are linked to Pakistan’s ISI, and in turn to Chinese intelligence, as are the terrorist-insurgent organizations like the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and United Wa State Army (UWSA) in Myanmar. China and Pakistan are also linked to a host of terrorist and insurgent organizations in India either directly or through their proxies.

Recent terrorist attacks in J&K have been engineered through front organizations of Pakistan-based terrorist organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Harkatul-Mujahideen (HuM) like The Resistance Force (TRF), the Geelani Force’ (GF), Peoples Anti Fascist Front in Kashmir (PAFFK) and Islamic State Hind Province (ISHP), the last one linked to ISIS-ISKP-ISI.

Attacks on Hindus and desecration of temples in Bangladesh have been engineered through the ISIS already present in Bangladesh. Besides ethnic cleansing, China’s larger aim is to foment dissent between India and Bangladesh. A Rajya Sabha MP has tweeted that if this continues, India should invade Bangladesh. China would be thrilled—If China can get Bangladesh into its strategic sphere, as it had the BNP-ruled Bangladesh, and then India’s encirclement would be complete.

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has expressed concern over the incidents and India has taken note. But shouldn’t the NSA interact with his Bangladeshi counterpart in this regard? Isn’t this what cooperation in counterterrorism is all about?

The Taliban, Al Qaeda, ISIS-ISKP and other similar terrorist organizations are one and the same aiming for global jihad. The important aspect is that they are being played around by global powers including the US and China to achieve their aims depending on the influence they yield individually over them or through the common terrorist-coordinator—Pakistan.

ISKP was raised in Peshawar by the ISI in sync with the CIA and the US has been pumping ISIS cadres from Iraq-Syria into Afghanistan. China has its inroads in ISKP through Pakistan. But the ISIS, while claiming the recent attack on a Shia mosque in Kunduz, has said the suicide bomber was a Uyghur Muslim. This has imposed caution on China’s development plans in Afghanistan.

Recall that the Charlie Hebdo shootings in January 2015 by just two terrorists possibly with some other assistance killed 17 civilians including 11 journalists, bringing France to standstill. This is what is happening in J&K no matter how much we want to whitewash it in media.

A simple fact our politicians do not understand is that diplomacy, fire assaults on Pakistani posts, one-time surgical strike or airstrike is no deterrent to proxy war. Ironically, lives of soldiers and police forces don’t matter to politicians as compensation is given albeit the amount depends on which force he belonged to. Families of civilians killed too get some compensation from respective states—pittance in some cases.

The ISI reportedly held a meeting with leaders of several terror outfits in Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir on September 21 for launching large-scale attacks in J&K with maximum target killings. The ISI has made a hit-list for killing of 200 people, for which pistols and grenade are being smuggled through the Line of Control from Uri and Tangdhar sectors.

The R&AW would have also had a meeting perhaps presided over by the NSA or the Home Minister. But what beyond, as someone asked on social media—“a high alert has been sounded” as usual? All these months, the government refused dialogue with Pakistan saying talks and terrorism can’t go together. But with Pakistan upping the level of terrorism in J&K, there is news that the NSA has invited the NSA of Pakistan along with others for a dialogue on Afghanistan.

If true, aren’t we signaling that we have regressed further into our pusillanimous posture? Would it not be better to convene the meeting without Pakistan and develop consensus that Pakistan is the ‘dog in the manger’ and a threat to the security of South Asia, Central Asia and the region? Or is it that we cannot overcome the American pressure to engage Pakistan?

Henry Kissinger wrote in his book ‘World Order: Reflections on the Character of Nations and the Course of History’:

• “The Arthashastra sets out, with dispassionate clarity, a vision of how to establish and guard a state while neutralizing, subverting and (when opportune conditions have been established) conquering its neighbours. The Arthshastra encompasses a world of practical statecraft, not philosophical disputation”.
• “For Kautilya, power was the dominant reality. It was multidimensional, and its factors were interdependent. All elements in a given situation were relevant, calculable, and amenable to manipulation toward a leader’s strategic aims. Geography, finance, military strength, diplomacy, espionage, law, agriculture, cultural traditions, morale and popular opinion, rumours and legends, and men’s vices and weaknesses needed to be shaped as a unit by a wise king to strengthen and expand his realm—much as a modern orchestra conductor shapes the instruments in his charge into a coherent tune. It was combination of Machiavelli and Clausewitz.”

Kautilya appreciated the sub-conventional war waged by a country’s neighbours and how to counter it. Ironically, Henry Kissinger derived strategic culture from the Arthshastra. We but failed to do so. Are we so obsessed with only developing a $5 trillion economy?

Ironically, there are opportunities galore including external suggestions but according to inside sources either the R&AW hierarchy is scared to use these opportunities or don’t’ even take it up with the national hierarchy on the pretext that they would not be agreed to. So the defensive-reactive culture persists.

National security strategies should aim at the creation of national and international political conditions favourable to the protection or extension of vital national values against existing and potential adversaries. But we still haven’t defined a national security strategy we never even discussed how to establish credible deterrence to Pakistan’s proxy because we don’t acknowledge the strategic significance of sub conventional warfare.

Pakistan’s proxy war cannot be deterred without taking the sub conventional war into enemy territoryon ‘continuous’ basis. The earlier our policy makers understand this, the better.

(The author is a veteran of Indian Army. Views expressed are personal)