China-Pakistan nexus has always been a matter of grave concern for India. The relationship between these two neighbouring nations of India has often been termed higher than the Himalaya and deeper than the sea by Beijing and Islamabad. Leaderships of both the nations since the creation of Pakistan after the eclipse of British colonial rule have been hyping on this. This is true that for any sovereign nation formulating bilateral relations and making diplomatic tie-ups are internal matters. Pakistan as a sovereign nation has this right too. But axis or nexus among the nations always have significance for others, who are not parleys of that so-called axis and nexus but directly or indirectly affected by this.

If things happen around the geographical border and within the periphery of a nation, this demands a close watch on the developments of such nexus. Factors that bear special significance is state of relationship of a particular nation with the others cannot be seen fragmented one in today’s global order. In case of China and Pakistan, the common factor that bears significance for India is the approach of these nations. As the policy initiated and the agenda unfolded in the domain of foreign policy and strategic policy of China and Pakistan is strong anti-India sentiment and provocation. Therefore, New Delhi has reasonable cause to keep regular watch on how issues evolve within the strategic calculus of both Beijing and Islamabad.

 

Also in the context of regional power balance of South East Asia, India and China are main contenders. However, Chinese approach is a virtual contrast compared to India. China believes neo-colonialism although this is utterly irrelevant in present world. India’s relationship with China both before Chinese aggression and afterwards has been tricky. State of bilateral understanding has only become bad to worse in case of New Delhi’s relations with Beijing. So also, Pakistani agenda has been sabotaging India’s security and strategic interests. Now if Pakistan makes efforts to provide China larger strategic hold in the region across India’s border, India has legitimate reason to keep close watch on how things are unfolding between China and Pakistan.

Considering all these, Pakistani foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s recent China visit is undoubtedly an important development. This was the second round of China-Pakistan Foreign Ministers’ Strategic Dialogue. This is true that Pakistani foreign minister is free to visit any nation. But the agenda of this particular visit and the things discussed during the meet and expressed in the joint press conference bear special significance for India. Before visiting China, Qureshi made it clear that not only the disputed China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is a project completely against India’s strategic interests but also ‘India’ was at the top of the agenda of the Pakistani foreign minister during his China tour this time.

 

Now look at the things Pakistan and China are discussing on ‘India’ as per the points suit to both the neighbouring nations. Can any sovereign nation accept this? Who has given rights to China and Pakistan to make resolution on certain points related to internal matters of India keeping aside New Delhi? Does any international norm ratify this? Indians know what has been discussed ultimately. This is certainly Kashmir issue and the so-called issues and concerns of the Kashmiri people. But destiny of Kashmir is inseparably connected with India which under no circumstance can be decided by China. Pakistan as a nation can be said immature as it has learnt nothing from its past mistakes. But how can Chinese leadership accept such an agenda of discussion? After all, greater maturity is expected from a country like China, which is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). This makes mockery to the Chinese outcry of publicising its status as an important parley of regional and global politics.

However, Qureshi’s China visit to enhance wide range of co-operations in strategic and military affairs took place at an important point of time when India-China and India-Pakistan relationships are passing through worst phase because of China’s aggressive approach and Pakistan’s hostility. This time is also important for Pakistani politics and the survival of Imran Khan in power in that country. Rift between civil administration and army is increasing in Pakistan. On the backdrop of repeated setbacks of Pakistani armed forces against India’s aggressive posture, credibility of both Imran administration and Pakistani army has declined in the perception of Pakistani masses. More so, after India getting Rafale aircraft, there has been increasing demand from the Pakistani army officials to engage in defence deal and getting military logistics. Pakistan knows that at this point of time when Pakistani economy is on the verge of virtual collapse, no country except China would like to shoulder its economic and defence burdens.

 

Also, Pakistan through this strategic dialogue with China wanted to give a message to Chinese leadership that despite viable opposition by a sizable section of Gilgit Baltistan, parts of PoK and Baluchistan, Islamabad is committed to provide base to Beijing and push forward the CPEC projects. Pakistan has faced setbacks in terms of bilateral relationships with other countries. Pakistan is consistently losing grips in the affairs of Afghanistan, which may prove to be bone of contention between China and Pakistan in the days ahead. Similarly, Pakistan’s present relationship with Arab world is not in order. All these factors, virtually compelled Islamabad to knock the door of Beijing for helps which has been propagated as strategic partnership between the two countries. But in the real sense, strategic partnership is not possible between China and Pakistan as bilateral relationships between these two nations are not based on equal terms. Pakistan is dependent and China is utilising this for its own interests.

Now it becomes imperative to give a look into what happened during Pakistani foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s recent visit to China. Qureshi during the talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi discussed wide range of issues. But the issue that figured prominently is Kashmir and China reaffirming to continue support to Pakistan’s illegal claim on Kashmir. A joint statement was also issued after this bilateral talk. As per media reports, a joint statement was issued after “the Pakistani side briefed the Chinese side on the situation in J&K, including its concerns, position and current urgent issues. The Chinese side reiterated that the Kashmir issue is a dispute left over from history between India and Pakistan, which is an objective fact, and that the dispute should be resolved peacefully and properly through the UN Charter, relevant Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreements. China opposes any unilateral actions that complicate the situation.”

India has already reacted to this in likely manner. But India must keep close watch on the activities related to China Pakistan Economic Corridor and the overall nexus evolving between Beijing and Islamabad from the strategic point of view. This is true that India does not need ratification of China, Pakistan or any other country to prove her legitimate right in Kashmir. Normalcy is returning to Kashmir and New Delhi has already announced withdrawal of military deployment from Kashmir. However, present assertiveness of India regarding China and PoK has already begun to mount pressure on both Beijing and Islamabad.

The momentum should go on. India needs to toughen the stand further, which will ensure larger strategic gain for New Delhi against both Beijing and Islamabad. CPEC is Pakistan’s compulsion and China’s need. This is in the real sense is the weak nerve of both Pakistan and China in the given time. From the PoK side the project is facing opposition by the people of Gilgit Baltistan and tribal community. On the other side, there is huge military deployment of India. But as part of strategic game-plan, India should keep on pressing this weak nerve CPEC to corner both Pakistan and China strategically. This will keep India better prepared against China-Pakistan unholy nexus and beyond.

-The writer is a Guwahati-based strategic affairs analyst. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda