The first anniversary of abrogation of Article 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution presents an occasion to introspect its impact and fallouts. It marked possibly the boldest history course correction since Independence, a loud and clear message of “One India, One Flag and One Constitution.” However, the decision, an internal matter of the nation, had the spillover factors both in the internal and external domain. Thus equally and if not a more critical aspect of the decision lay emphasis in its implementation and management of both internal dynamics and the external security environment
Challenges of Abrogation Fallout:
In the internal domain, both management of the internal security ripples in the valley and the political stability of the three different political entities were primary. I had explicitly stated earlier a year ago that the decision is bold but the path is challenging and the destination must not lose focus. I added “How we handle this sensitive situation, particularly in Kashmir, could be described as a historic turning point of integration by an act of genius or an unintended but badly handled catastrophic misadventure. The people of the three regions need empathy, support and demonstrated commitment for the narrative to change. Demographic integration adversely impacted by ethnic cleansing particularly in the valley also needs a course correction. Sustained, time-bound and visible development integrating people and political revival of the region in a sensitive security environment will be the primary bonding permanence.”
I took a review of the lexicon of normalcy after 100 days and stated that while the security situation has seen a positive turn attributable to the controlled environment, the challenge of integrating the people and political restoration of statehood through a democratic process remains a challenge.
In the external domain, with 45 per cent of the original state’s area and 30 per cent of its population (as of October 26, 1947) having been sliced away over the years, it directly impacted Pakistan (POK and Gilgit – Baltistan) as also China (beneficiary of Pakistan ceded territory and Aksai Chin). But the most important indicator of Pak-China nexus being strengthened and China’s aggressive diplomatic posture was visible when China raised the issue in the UN Security Council (UNSC). Beijing stated that it is “seriously concerned” specifically pointing out Ladakh becoming a separate Union Territory. It perceived the event and the ensuing political statements not only as a territorial threat but also endangering its multi-billion dollar China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project.
Indian political and security establishments’ offensive territorial musings to stir hyper nationalistic fervour added much avoidable hype to an otherwise precision political strike. The reaction of other global community was essentially cautious and supportive. Thus agile diplomacy and an alert security apparatus should have envisaged all possible scenarios and taken pre-emptive actions to stymie any adverse fallout. Unfortunately, we faltered in our obsession at looking to West, while the Dragon struck on the Northern borders. A lack of national security strategy and neglect of capability building on the Northern front proved costly for the nation.
Where are We a Year Later?
Certainly irrespective of the curbed environment and restrictions, the internal security situation in the region has seen a positive outcome. While the flavour of militancy may have changed, the frustrations of proxy war are visible by the elimination of top militant leadership, dwindling local recruitment, the lower terrorist incidents, reduced stone-pelting incidents and the impotency of political pawns like Hurriyat and other OGWs to morally or financially brew extreme Salafi and Wahhabi ideologies. However, these must lead to address the more critical fault lines of radicalisation and alienation of the youth, political uncertainty and usher in development initiatives which impact the people of the region integrating them into the larger Indian establishment with honour and pride.
Dealing with Pakistan is an easier challenge due to their fragile internal dynamics and frustrations. Its anger and denouncement of the abrogation were more for its domestic audience sentiments and proxy war frustrations. It played the self-created Hindutva Card to fuel anti-India religious fanaticism. The integration of Kashmir posed a perceived threat not only to its primary anti-Indian stance of K card but also to POK and Gilgit-Baltistan. It was seen as a major setback for both the Pak Military and the Mullah, who control the puppet political dispensation. Silence from its friends in West Asia added to its woes of isolation. Its forays along with China to raise the issue in the UN, posing it as a threat to regional stability did not meet its aspirations.
China has posed, and will continue to pose with increased belligerence the primary challenge to Indian national security. China now considers itself as a third party to Kashmir issue consequent to the revocation of Article 370 and the UT status of Ladakh. China sees both the abrogation of the Article and the formation of the new state as a kind of aggressiveness. Thus its diplomatic dissent in UN, demand for foreign-policy talks with India for revocation of the new legislation creating Ladakh and ultimately the unprecedented Himalayan aggression are a part of its strategic messaging of dissent through coercion.
Wang Xianfengm, a press officer at the Chinese embassy in Islamabad according to his Twitter bio, put out a tweet that said: “India’s actions of unilaterally changing the status quo of Kashmir and continuing to exacerbate regional tensions have posed a challenge to the sovereignty of China and Pakistan and made the India-Pakistan relations and China-India relations more complex.” China’s wrath over Article 370 abrogation is nothing to do with the fallacy of alleged attack on minorities or human rights for which both Pakistan and China have a pathetic record. It only exploited it as a catalyst to foster its larger strategic aim of expansionism and stymie the rise of India as a regional competitor through coercion.
Future Prognosis
Indian strategic security environment is going through a trying period of its history. Every landmark decision brings along with it challenges which need to be managed in time and space. Decisions are the easier part. Successful execution for the desired outcome is more difficult. Management of a complex change takes time for bearing its fruits and its turbulent ripples to subside. Yet an institutionalised time critical road map and focus on commitment, credibility and visibility are critical. Internally the people and in particular the youth are the centre of gravity of the region. Thus mainstreaming of the youth, de-radicalisation, development initiatives and restoring political status through the democratic process is exigent. Externally while Pakistan needs to be periodically subdued by the punitive response, the main threat to our national security lies in our Northern and Eastern borders by China.
India would do well to address both the internal fault lines expeditiously for the internal stability of the region, as well as build an effective deterrence against external threats to its territorial integrity. India needs to synergise its whole of nation approach into a successful national security strategy through the intelligent integration and networking of 3 D — “Defence, Diplomacy, Development” along with other tools of hard and soft power. The poetic verses of Robert Frost have a strategic message for India – “The woods are lovely, dark and deep, But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep, And miles to go before I sleep.”
-The author is a PVSM, AVSM, VSM has had an illustrious career spanning nearly four decades. A distinguished Armoured Corps officer, he has served in various prestigious staff and command appointments including Commander Independent Armoured Brigade, ADG PP, GOC Armoured Division and GOC Strike 1. The officer retired as DG Mechanised Forces in December 2017 during which he was the architect to initiate process for reintroduction of Light Tank and Chairman on the study on C5ISR for Indian Army. Subsequently he was Consultant MoD/OFB from 2018 to 2020. The Officer is a reputed defence analyst, a motivational speaker and prolific writer on matters of military, defence technology and national security.The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda.
